On August 18, Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko announced that Belarus would deploy approximately 20,000 troops, or roughly a third of its army, near the Ukrainian border. He stated that this was in response to the buildup of Ukrainian troops. Even if the Ukrainian leadership does not fully believe that Belarus will mount a full incursion, they are obliged to allocate resources to strengthen that border, something they are indeed already doing.

Ukrainian forces are advancing into Russia’s Kursk Oblast in a strategic move to secure Ukraine’s borders, disrupt Russian supply lines, and shift the conflict onto Russian soil. In response, Russia is redeploying battalions from secondary fronts, though its primary focus remains on Donetsk. The humanitarian situation is critical, with urgent needs for evacuation support, healthcare, and infrastructure protection in Sumy Oblast, as well as the provision of drinking water, food, and hygiene products in Kursk Oblast.

To maintain operational relevance and support preparedness efforts, UACAT conducts a biannual review of these scenarios. This report starts by looking at the political, economic, and regional and international factors that will inform developments in the coming months, starting with the political situation.